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Severity × Likelihood Heatmap

Data on this page is preliminary and may change. Please do not share or cite these figures publicly.

Heatmap table showing severity probability distributions per subdomain. Each row shows the percentage likelihood of each severity level. Click a row for IQR details.

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Data sourced from the Delphi expert elicitation study. Severity and likelihood ratings reflect expert consensus under Business as Usual (BAU) and Pragmatic Mitigations (PM) scenarios. Actor and sector ratings use weighted means of 5-point Likert distributions. About this data & methodology →

Severity × Likelihood Heatmap

Data on this page is preliminary and may change. Please do not share or cite these figures publicly.

Heatmap table showing severity probability distributions per subdomain. Each row shows the percentage likelihood of each severity level. Click a row for IQR details.

Compare

Click any row to see the full severity distribution.

Subdomain	Avg
1.1 Discrimination	75% \| 3.17	6.4%	18.9%	35.3%	30.3%	9.1%
1.2 Toxic content	63% \| 2.89	12.5%	24.7%	33.4%	19.6%	9.7%
1.3 Unequal performance	70% \| 3.02	12.3%	18.0%	34.9%	25.7%	9.2%
2.1 Loss of privacy	77% \| 3.25	7.3%	15.7%	33.1%	32.8%	11.2%
2.2 AI security vulnerabilities	79% \| 3.32	7.3%	13.6%	34.8%	28.6%	15.7%
3.1 False information	83% \| 3.44	4.4%	12.3%	31.4%	39.1%	12.8%
3.2 Loss of consensus reality	78% \| 3.29	6.5%	15.7%	32.8%	32.4%	12.6%
4.1 Disinformation & influence	79% \| 3.33	6.5%	14.1%	31.5%	35.3%	12.6%
4.2 AI weapons & cyberattacks	83% \| 3.49	4.6%	12.8%	32.6%	29.0%	21.0%
4.3 AI fraud & scams	72% \| 3.09	9.4%	19.1%	35.7%	24.3%	11.5%
5.1 Overreliance & unsafe use	70% \| 3.06	10.4%	19.5%	35.2%	24.3%	10.7%
5.2 Loss of human agency	73% \| 3.13	8.5%	18.2%	36.9%	25.0%	11.5%
6.1 Power centralization	82% \| 3.47	3.5%	14.1%	32.7%	31.7%	18.0%
6.2 Inequality & unemployment	83% \| 3.42	5.5%	11.4%	36.1%	29.8%	17.1%
6.3 Devaluation of human creativity	73% \| 3.15	5.1%	21.7%	36.0%	27.8%	9.5%
6.4 Competitive dynamics	84% \| 3.49	4.4%	12.0%	30.2%	36.8%	16.6%
6.5 Governance failure	81% \| 3.39	5.2%	13.4%	33.3%	33.7%	14.4%
6.6 Environmental harm	79% \| 3.32	4.3%	17.0%	38.3%	23.3%	17.1%
7.1 AI misalignment	68% \| 3.09	15.0%	16.9%	28.8%	22.7%	16.6%
7.2 Dangerous capabilities	81% \| 3.49	7.0%	12.1%	27.1%	32.4%	21.5%
7.3 Capability & robustness	74% \| 3.11	8.8%	17.6%	37.8%	25.1%	10.7%
7.4 Transparency & interpretability	67% \| 2.95	10.9%	22.0%	35.3%	24.2%	7.5%
7.6 Multi-agent risks	70% \| 3.06	10.0%	19.7%	36.3%	21.8%	12.2%

Negligible

Minor

Substantial

Severe

Catastrophic

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